Real time hourly forecast of >2 MeV electron flux
Weighted averages of integral fluxes generated by NARMAX are used as an input to drive the Versatile Radiation Belt Electron (VERB) code. The VERB code generates a matrix of electron flux vs. Time and radial distance. Using the Tsyganenko ’89 magnetic field model geostationary orbit is translated into L* space and flux values for that space are taken for each hour from the matrix.
The code predicts 2+ MeV electron fluxes at geostationary orbit for 3 hours ahead assuming a constant Kp index. The VERB NARMAX Coupled (VNC) model is currently in development. New improvements and features will be added over the course of the next few months.
>2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit
>2 MeV electron flux matrix